Proceedings from the Wood Compatibility Initiative Workshop, number 4. SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS INFLUENCING LAND USE AND MANAGEMENT CHANGES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

摘要: We have developed models describing relationships between socioeconomic forces and land use and management changes in the Pacific Northwest. How land is allocated among different uses is a reflection of socioeconomic forces that motivate human settlement and the land management decisions of private landowners. Private landowners are heterogeneous in nature. Their objectives and land use decisions have significant implications across a regional landscape with mixed ownerships, especially concerning sustainability issues and risk-related factors associated with human disturbance of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Our models provide long-range projections of land use change, serving as key inputs into other models of terrestrial and aquatic processes. They describe the probability of developing forests and farmland in the region into residential, commercial, or industrial uses as a function of spatial socioeconomic variables, landownership patterns, and geographic and physical land characteristics. Results suggest that development of forest and farmland is most likely on lands located near population centers and increases in likelihood with the size of those population centers. We project that nonindustrial private forestlands are the most likely to be developed over the next 50 years.