VORTEX: Preliminary Findings and Implications

摘要: 1. INTRODUCTION The Verification of the Origins of Ro-tation in Tornadoes EXperiment (VORTEX) has been an exciting project in which to be involved, for a number of reasons. This project (described broadly in Rasmussen et al. 1994; more detailed project information is available on the World Wide Web at:< http://antietam. nssl. uoknor. edu/mosaic_files/vortex. html>) differs from most previous field programs in some important ways. Foremost among these is that the experimental design was predicated on entering the field phase with some very specific testable hypotheses. The hypotheses were the basis for designing the field observational strategies and the measuring systems used in the field. Thus, rather than simply going out and collecting whatever data could be collected and hoping that it would suffice to" do science," the object was to seek data sets to invalidate the hypotheses; that is, to collect data with the idea of giving the hypotheses a stringent test. This notion is a reflection of the philosophy of science most closely connected to Karl Popper (see, eg, Popper 1962); viz., that empiricism cannot prove some scientific hypothesis but it can refute it. The power of a scientific hypothesis, in Popper's view, is in accordance with its ability to be tested as rigorously as pos-sible. If the data do not refute the hypothesis, this does not constitute" proof" but it certainly is a noteworthy event in the" life cycle" of a scientific idea when it is not disproved by a well-conceived rigorous test.Another exciting aspect of the program is that it really is the first (and so is the largest, by default) scientific field project aimed solely at tornadoes and tornadic storms. Most …