Climate Sensitivity Analysis: All Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols

摘要: This section provides an overview of all greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, the sources, their contributions to overall emissions, and their likely cumulative effects on global temperature increases. The non-energy GHG modelling in this chapter is an update of the probabilistic assessment of the global mean temperature published in the first part of Achieving the Paris Climate Agreements, Chap. 12 (Meinshausen ). The 1.5 °C energy and non-energy pathways were assessed by Climate Resource—specialists in assessing the warming implications of emissions scenarios. The analysis focuses on the derivation of the trajectories of non-CO2 emissions that match the trajectories of energy and industrial CO2 emissions and evaluates the multi-gas pathways against various temperature thresholds and carbon budgets until 2100. (120).Section 7.2 is based on the following: ‘Documentation of ‘UTS scenarios …