Material stock accumulation in society: modeling, forecasts, and socio-economic drivers

摘要: In-use material stocks, especially buildings and infrastructure, provide numerous services such as dwelling, transport, and communication, forming the physical foundations of society. The quantity and quality of materials stocks inform their ability to provide such services, and dictate the amounts of material and energy flows necessary to maintain, expand, and provide energy to them. The demands for inflows of materials from the environment into human economic systems are continuously increasing and straining options for resource extraction, which cause harm to natural ecosystems as well as raise the economic costs of extraction. Since the planet has limited material sources and a limited capacity to handle anthropogenic wastes, actions to reduce the strains caused by material stocks on the environment are in order. This work examines the long-term accumulation trends of material stocks in society and their associated material flow dynamics. It describes both deterministic and stochastic methodologies to account and create future projections of stock growth, analyzes historical trends and investigates the socio-economic driving factors of this accumulation in several case studies.The first chapter introduces the topic of material stocks and related concept of material consumption, with a special focus on construction materials. It presents the problem statement and research objective, and defines the main research question:‘What are the trends of material stock in countries as they mature?’. This is followed by descriptions of the justification, scope and limitations, and structure of the thesis. The second chapter reviews the theories, principles …