NWP MODEL ASSESSMENT DURING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GONU

摘要: Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN) is running the limited area model of Deutsher Wetterdinest (DWD), High Resolution Model (HRM) since November 1999. HRM is used operationally to forecast different weather parameters. HRM is running at two resolutions, 28km resolution that covers the Arabia peninsula and part of the Indian continent. Due to the lack of computational power, the 7km resolution covers Oman and small part of Arabia peninsula only. Oman forecasting centre have depended on the HRM_28km as well as other Global and regional NWP models before and during the tropical cyclone Gonu (2007) to issue the forecast and warnings. Recently, with kind co-operation with the Deutsher Wetterdinest (DWD), DGMAN was able to install Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model for scientific research and evaluation since April 2008 at 7 km resolution covering on the same domain as of HRM_07.Even though, both models are not specialized cyclone tracking. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of DGMAN’s NWP models during the tropical cyclone Gonu period. Both models were re-run to simulate the tropical cyclone Gonu during the period of 3-6 June 2007. The study covers evaluation of cyclone track, intensity and associated rainfall amount. This intercomparison will also answer the question “Would the forecast be better if COSMO was there during the tropical cyclone Gonu?.