Dynamic adaptation of water resources systems under uncertainty by learning policy structure and indicators

摘要: The challenge of adapting water resources systems to uncertain hydroclimatic and socioeconomic conditions warrants a dynamic planning approach. Recent studies have designed policies with structures linking infrastructure and management actions to threshold values of indicator variables observed over time. Typically, one or more of these components are held fixed while the others are optimized, constraining the flexibility of policy generation. Here we develop a framework to address this challenge by designing and testing dynamic adaptation policies that combine indicators, actions, and thresholds in a flexible structure. The approach is demonstrated for a case study of northern California, where a mix of infrastructure, management, and operational adaptations are considered over time in response to an ensemble of nonstationary hydrology and water demands. We first identify a subset of non‐dominated …