Global technical potentials for energy efficiency improvement

摘要: In this study the technical potential and costs are calculated for global energy efficiency improvement in 2050 based on literature sources. The reference scenario is based on the World Energy Outlook (WEO) of the International Energy Agency edition 2007 (IEA, 2007a) and assumptions regarding GDP development after 2030. The results of this study are that on a business-as-usual trajectory, worldwide final energy demand grows by 95% from 290 EJ in 2005 to 570 EJ in 2050. By exploiting the technical potential for energy efficiency improvement in that period the increase can be limited to 8% or 317 EJ in 2050. It is estimated that to implement the global technical potential, annual costs equivalent to 0.5% of GDP in 2050 are needed. It was found that there is a large potential for cost-effective measures, equivalent to around 55-60% of energy savings of the efficiency measures.