Development and internal validation of a prognostic model for loss of balance and falls in mid-to late-stage Parkinson’s disease

摘要: BackgroundMid- to late-stage Parkinson’s disease (PD) is often linked with worsened and significant impairment of motor activities, but existing prognostic markers do not adequately capture the risk of loss of balance in PD patients. This study aims to develop a risk prognostic model for mid- to late-stage PD and identify prognostic factors that are indicative of impending loss of balance and falls.MethodsThe study included 307 participants of which 75 were diagnosed with idiopathic PD and 232 were neurological or non-neurological controls. Among the PD group, 46 were early-stage (Hoehn and Yahr [H&Y] = 1,2) with no significant loss of balance while 29 were mid- to late-stage (H&Y = 3,4,5) which is characterized by loss of balance and falls. Multivariable logistic regression (MLR) was used to develop a prognostic model for mid- to late-stage PD. Model discrimination was assessed by ROC curves. The model …