Significance of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 on China's energy transition pathway: a multi-model comparison analysis

摘要: China has proposed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Although previous studies have assessed net-zero emissions pathways in China, the diversity observed in these studies in terms of model construction and parameter setting has led to inconsistent conclusions on some key issues, such as energy transition. This study employs a multi-model comparison method to examine the significance of China's carbon neutrality target on its energy systems by assessing 67 carbon neutrality scenarios in China that are collected from the ADVANCE database, and identifying the differences between energy transition pathways under BEF60 scenarios (i.e. scenarios realising carbon neutrality by 2060) and AFT60 scenarios (i.e. scenarios realising carbon neutrality after 2060). Results show that China needs a larger deployment of low-carbon electricity, a higher electrification rate and more carbon sequestration amount …