Evaluating outlier probabilities: assessing sharpness, refinement, and calibration using stratified and weighted measures

摘要: An outlier probability is the probability that an observation is an outlier. Typically, outlier detection algorithms calculate real-valued outlier scores to identify outliers. Converting outlier scores into outlier probabilities increases the interpretability of outlier scores for domain experts and makes outlier scores from different outlier detection algorithms comparable. Although several transformations to convert outlier scores to outlier probabilities have been proposed in the literature, there is no common understanding of good outlier probabilities and no standard approach to evaluate outlier probabilities. We require that good outlier probabilities be sharp, refined, and calibrated. To evaluate these properties, we adapt and propose novel measures that use ground-truth labels indicating which observation is an outlier or an inlier. The refinement and calibration measures partition the outlier probabilities into bins or use kernel …