Empirical scoring of ground motion prediction equations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Italy including site effects

摘要: In this study, we apply an empirical scoring method to evaluate the feasibility of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses at regional scale in Italy accounting for site amplification, which is taken into account through application a set ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) defined specific types. Precisely, calculates agreement (in terms likelihood) between results computed using model and number ground-motion exceedances reference sites. Such procedure applied quantify likelihood outcomes different models, each based on GMPE, with respect observations 56 accelerometric sites operating least 25 years. Indirectly, allows evaluating influence selected GMPE providing reliable estimates. Seven possible GMPEs, applicable active shallow crustal regions like Italy, have been examined taking correlation among estimates provided by computational Our indicate that, although GMPEs pre-defined soil categories provides only broad assessment (since it ignores response), large-scale maps that are compatible can be when suitable considered. A restricted was found appropriate scope.