Scoring and Testing Procedures Devoted to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment

摘要: This review addresses long-term (tens of years) seismic ground-motion forecasting (seismic hazard assessment) in the presence alternative computational models (the so-called epistemic uncertainty affecting estimates). We different approaches that have been proposed to manage context probabilistic assessment (PSHA). Ex-ante procedures (based on combination expert judgments about inherent characteristics PSHA model) and ex-post empirical comparison model outcomes observations) should not be considered as mutually exclusive alternatives but can combined a coherent Bayesian view. Therefore, we propose procedure allows better exploitation available obtain comprehensive estimates, which account for both aleatory uncertainty. also discuss respective roles scoring testing concurring development maps. In order show how may work, present tentative application Italian area. particular, four are evaluated against macroseismic effects actually observed large set municipalities during time span 1957–2006. analysis shows that, when whole area is considered, all provide estimates do agree with observations. However, two them results compatible observations, subregion Italy (Apulia Region) considered. By focusing this area, computed curve single locality feasibility procedure.