On the future prospects and limits of biofuels in Brazil, the US and EU.

摘要: Abstract In the early 2000s high expectations existed regarding potential contribution of biofuels to reduction greenhouse gas emissions and substitution fossil fuels in transport. recent years sobering judgments prevailed. The major barriers for a further expansion are their costs (compared fuels), moderate ecological performances, limited feedstocks biofuel production competition with food production. objective this paper is investigate market prospects up year 2030. It focuses on three currently most important regions use: US, EU Brazil which 2010 accounted together almost three-quarters global supply. Our method approach based dynamic economic framework considering cost components corresponding technological learning respect capital costs. Moreover, analysis competitiveness also taxes considered. result that under existing tax policies cost-effective today next decades investigated. However, potentials restricted especially due crops areas, environmental performance rather modest. final conclusions are: (i) To reveal real future value biofuels, CO2 system should be implemented all types providing neutral incentive between renewable fuels; (ii) research development but second generation has intensified.