Dynamic analysis of feasibility in ethanol supply chain for biofuel production in Mexico

摘要: Since ethanol is considered an essential additive for biofuel production, there may be the opportunity to employ it as such in Mexico. However, analysis of supply chain should performed first. Therefore, order analyze main variables chain, well feasibility its use, present research developed a System Dynamics model based on idea suggested by SENER (Secretariat Energy Mexico). The explores five possible scenarios (between 2014 and 2030), evaluates availability area sowing sugarcane grain sorghum crops, production capacity fuel, reduction carbon dioxide emissions. considers trends parameters agricultural energy industries, produces valuable information about future conditions Mexican fossil fuel supply. obtained results predicted two situations. First, Mexico would face shortage future. Second, from amount available that time, produced accumulated collaborate little meet domestic demand. Also, concerned, demonstrated powerful methodology simulate understand chains emerging markets