Distribución del cedro rojo (Cedrela odorata L.) en el estado de Hidalgo, bajo condiciones actuales y escenarios de cambio climático

摘要: The potential climatic areas for the distribution of red cedar ( Cedrela odorata L.) were obtained in state Hidalgo under actual conditions, with meteorological information 1961-1990 as base line, and climate change conditions wich two models: GFDL-R30 HadCM3 time scenarios (2020 2050). adjustment rates temperature rainfall each model applied on influence delimitated according to Gomez et al. (2006). Asoil moisture balance state’s surface was calculated current using Thornthwaite, modified version III methodology (Monterroso Gomez, 2003). present percentage vegetation types associated is 9,8% estimated some degree suitability this specie, characteristics baseline scenario, 30,4%. results shows an increment total respect scenario 3,1% 4,4% years 2020 2050, respectively, a differential within classes. applying decrement 0,9% year 0,2% 2050. However, class Moderate suitable, from 10,5% 0% 1,3% almost all lowest level suitability.