Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Rice Growth and Yield under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C in the Pearl River Delta, China

摘要: In this study, the potential climate change impacts on rice growth and yield under 1.5 2.0 °C warming scenarios, respectively, are simulated using Ceres-Rice Model based high-quality, agricultural, experimental, meteorological soil data, incorporation of future data generated by four Global Climate Models (GCMs) in Pearl River Delta, China. The climatic is extracted from namely: Community Atmosphere 4 (CAM4), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Hamburg 6 (ECHAM6), Interdisciplinary Research On 5 (MIROC5) Norwegian Earth System 1 (NorESM1). modeling results show that has major negative both yields at all study sites. More specifically, average flowering durations decreases 2.8 days (3.9 days), maturity date 11.0 (14.7 days) (2.0 °C) respectively. early mature late reduced 292.5 kg/ha (558.9 kg/ha) 151.8 (380.0 Adjusting planting dates eight later 15 earlier to be adaptively effective, optimum fertilizer amount about 240 kg/ha, with different industrial organic matter being applied.