Persistence of plague outbreaks among great gerbils in Kazakhstan: effects of host population dynamics

摘要: Outbreaks of plague (Yersinia pestis) among great gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) generally require a high host abundance to be initiated. The duration an outbreak is expected depend on the subsequent development this abundance; however, prediction nontrivial due complexity gerbil–plague system. aim study was investigate how outbreaks depends different types population dynamics generated from: cyclic model; autoregressive model giving irregular fluctuations; and simple with uncorrelated fluctuations. For each model, studied under various levels mean variability abundance. Its focus effect gerbil sets apart from few published studies diseases in dynamic populations. Plague were simulated cellular automaton based statistical analysis archived records Temporal autocorrelation found make less sensitive changes than Cyclicity had little outbreaks, but resulted multimodal distribution. all three dynamics, increased reduced when (paralleling results risk species extinction fluctuating environments), their lower. Spatial heterogeneity briefly tested produced longer homogenous case. are relevant predicting activity populations gerbils.