Estimating of temperature abnormalities in local climate dynamics

摘要: At present, it becomes more and nontrivial to answer the question what does mean a normal behavior in relation dynamics of local climate system: over sense? The core problem is connected with fact that criteria for hazards (or violent unfavorable weather factors) damages relate rather empirical considerations on human convenience economical profits, but not processes qualitative changes dynamics. We analyse basic restrictions traditional viewpoint propose novel approach identify system estimate temperature abnormalities. accept two assumptions: “normal behavior” relates any system, including natural variability abrupt changes; “abnormality” certain technological process means difference between artificial production reference realized behavior. main advantage use experimental bifurcation analysis basis HDS-model reconstruct It allows introduce ground piece-wise model annual variation concerning throughout term available observations. necessary software were designed realized. observations made from end 19-th century 2012 year analyzed. consider our research future develop risk estimations activity taking into account detail.