Using the sun to decarbonize the power sector: The economic potential of photovoltaics and concentrating solar power ☆

摘要: Abstract Photovoltaics (PV) has recently undergone impressive growth and substantial cost decreases, while deployment for concentrating solar power (CSP) been much slower. As the share of PV rises, challenge system integration will increase. This favors CSP, which can be combined with thermal storage co-firing to reduce variability. It is thus an open question how important achieving climate mitigation targets, technology dominant in long-term. We address these questions state-of-the-art integrated energy-economy-climate model REMIND 1.5, embodies advanced representation most drivers deployment. derive up-to-date values current future costs technologies. calculate a consistent global resource potential dataset both CSP PV, aggregated country-level. also present simplified variable renewable energies, suitable large-scale energy-economy-models. Finally, we large number scenarios perform sensitivity study analyze robust our results are towards reductions CSP. The show that becomes electricity source scenario limiting warming 2 °C, together supplying 48% total 2010–2100 electricity. Solar technologies have stabilizing effect on price: if excluded policy scenario, prices rise higher than case full availability. competition between CSP: cheaper direct basis deployed earlier, but at high supply shares become so gains competitive advantage rapidly developed, eventually overtaking PV. Even pessimistic no further reductions, still 19% conclude stringent target 2 °C met cost-efficiently, play paramount role long-term transformation system.