Ensemble models predict Important Bird Areas in southern Africa will become less effective for conserving endemic birds under climate change.

摘要: Aim: To examine the impacts of climate change on endemic birds, which are global significance for conservation, a continent with few such assessments. We specifically assess projected range changes in relation to Important Bird Areas (IBAs) network and possible consequences conservation. Location: South Africa, Lesotho Swaziland. Methods: The newly emerging ensemble modelling approach is used 50 species, four models period 2070-2100 eight bioclimatic niche statistical package biomod. Model evaluation done using receiver operating characteristic recently introduced true skill statistic. Future projections made considering two extreme assumptions: species have full dispersal ability no ability. A consensus forecast identified principal components analysis. This interpreted terms IBA network. An irreplaceability analysis highlight priority IBAs conservation attention change. Results: majority (62%) predicted lose climatically suitable space. Five at least 85% their Many (41%; 47 IBAs) show high rates turnover more than 50% (77%; 95 IBAs). Highly irreplaceable regions become highly localized under change, meaning that analysed here experience similar contractions maintain niches. Main conclusions: African likely less effective conserving birds key refugia but many these areas not currently IBAs. In addition, high-priority fall outside current formal protected