Using expert elicitation to quantify catchment water balances and their uncertainties
作者： E. Sebok , J. C. Refsgaard , J. J. Warmink , S. Stisen , K. H. Jensen
DOI: 10.1002/2015WR018461
关键词: Precipitation 、 Water balance 、 Catchment hydrology 、 Evapotranspiration 、 Environmental science 、 Groundwater recharge 、 Uncertainty analysis 、 Surface runoff 、 Hydrology 、 Expert elicitation
摘要: Expert elicitation with the participation of 35 experts was used to estimate a water balance for nested Ahlergaarde and Holtum catchments in Western Denmark. Average annual values precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface runoff as well subsurface outflow recharge their uncertainty were estimated multistep elicitation, where first gave opinion on probability distribution component interest, then average components catchment-scale balances obtained by reaching consensus during group discussions. The errors 1055 km2 catchment 120 −5 −62 mm/yr, respectively, an 66 86 respectively. As advantage expert drawing intuitive experience capabilities assess complex, site-specific problems, contribution independent sources uncertainties total also evaluated similarly component, which traditionally is residual balance.
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