Spatial patterns of breeding success of grizzly bears derived from hierarchical multistate models.

摘要: Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step understanding managing spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links estimating patterns of across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed occurrence grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites different types land cover. used hierarchical to estimate probability detection, bear occupancy, each site. Grizzly varied among cover was greater herbaceous alpine ecotones than low-elevation wetlands or mid-elevation conifer forests. The conditional given 30% (SE = 0.14). cubs had higher detection without cubs, were correctly classified as being occupied breeding females 49% time based on raw data thus would have been underestimated half. Repeated modeling reduced misclassifying breeders unoccupied <2%. landscape. Those patches highest probabilities occupancy-herbaceous ecotones-were small highly dispersed are projected shrink treelines advance due climate warming. Understanding correlates distribution key requirement species conservation face help identify priorities management protection.