Integrating research on ecohydrology and land use change with land use management

摘要: One objective of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme is to provide a scientific basis for sustainable development policies. Land use change and ecohydrology are important components this basis, but predicting difficult because scale complexity interactions between non-linear ecohydrological socio-economic processes at different spatial temporal scales. A systems framework, Ecosystem Approach, has been developed conceptualize these purpose providing information policy. The Approach combines dynamics Holling figure-eight model -- conceptual that stresses discontinuous destruction as an internal property system - properties self-organizing with socio political aspects decision making. highlights problems managing in complex when may involve unpredictable shifts attractor. Although there methods available detect occurrence such shifts, both detection modelling complicated by presence semi-stable attractors. When or ecosystem on attractor, it appear remain stable extended period prior changing consequence inherent instabilities. shift new attractor occurs, quite sudden unpredictable. technical discussion prediction under conditions semi-stability chaos included enhances our understanding role surprise ecosystems, well utility simulation models. principles derived from theoretical example land policy Huron Natural Area south-western Ontario. These clear research, particularly modelling, within larger context management.