Impact of water scarcity in Australia on global food security in an era of climate change

摘要: Abstract Australia is a major food exporting country. Recent droughts reduced dryland farming production and the volume of water allocated to irrigated agriculture, with resulting decline in aggregate agricultural exports. This paper analyses possible impact increased scarcity on Australian magnitude subsequent impacts global security. Using Bureau Statistics (ABS) data land use coupled hydro-economic stochastic modelling approach, southern Murray–Darling Basin, more generally for Australia, are analysed. Changes activity, reduction exports altered composition products exported attributed severe 2000–2009 drought also analysed highlight implications The climate change examined. analysis shows that change, when modelled as extreme case, along other factors such use, will Despite its relatively small contribution total supply, Australia’s international trade wheat, meat dairy substantial could affect prices. Furthermore, disproportionate importance within South- South–East Asian Oceania region, both terms strategic reasons. Adaptation investment agriculture needed maintain enhance