Nutrition and Food Security in a Changing Climate: Methods for predicting household coping strategy use and Food Security in the Ethiopian Context

摘要: Climate change affects households, villages, countries, and regions worldwide. The populations individuals most vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate live in poorest least developed world, engage climate-dependent livelihoods have few assets. Ethiopia, one countries with a history climate- politically-induced famines, has 80 percent its population engaged rain-fed agricultural livelihoods. This dissertation sought determine empirically how households Ethiopia cope on their food security. where engages livelihoods, famines. consists three studies. first two studies were qualitative primary interviews recruitment, consent, structured interviews, protocols approved by UCLA Institution Review Board, but used mixed methods including t-tests Fisher's exact tests analysis. third study was quantitative panel data from seven waves Ethiopian Rural Household Survey (1994-2009).The involved 59 rural-to-urban migrants Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Findings indicated that migration for some induced due having insufficient tangible intangible assets as result decreased or variable crop-yields, forced sale livestock, other assets, need additional income. Small plots land, low levels education, fertilizer loans, tax debts contributors asset levels. Migration others volition desire increase social economic status better jobs education. Individuals who migrated often reported sufficient food. Few had access safety-net programs those did undesired provisions. second 35 heads proxy-heads household rural villages. shortfalls climate-change handful strategies selling animals, eating less-preferred foods, decreasing amount eaten, Nearly all interviewees worried about money, food, needed more animals. affect crop-yields. is three-meal per day culture. In good-food months, adults children eat meals day. bad-food both fewer meals, than preserve child-nutritional status. Adults land members fewest number bad months. Only worst times report anyone migrating though family member past. Some believe they will migrate future, primarily education.The longitudinal Survey, covering 1,477 over 20 years. Analytical hierarchical linear modeling bivariate multivariate relationships between outcome predictor variables elaboration model test modification irrigation rainfall-adequacy food-security Hierarchical much observed relationship can be attributed household, village, region, time-specific aspects.Findings continually vary time. Where located, geography, time important predictors status, are indicators effects. Irrigation also demonstrated improvements beyond alone, indicating while an security, modifies relationship, impact geography household-location. crop storage improved free-food distribution no impact. however, do influence resilience, type, choice coping-strategies households' use. findings these provide new supporting knowledge coping-strategy use demonstrating well possible causes These confirm current literature describing inadequate coverage assistance Ethiopia's program, guiding way pro-poor climate-sensitive policy recommendations.