Probabilistic Forecasts: Some results and speculations

摘要: This paper introduces the concept of calibration which refers to external correspondence between assessed subjective probabilities and hit-rate. Evidence is presented that psychological processes involved in forecasting future events are different from those evaluating truth one’s own knowledge. The implication results research has investigated probability assessments given general knowledge questions will not generalize real world where uncertainty located future. Finally, directions for on probabilistic sketched out. should lead effective evaluation forecasts selection forecasters.