Toward generalization of futures contracts for raw materials: A probabilistic answer applied to metal markets
作者： Florian Fizaine
DOI: 10.1016/J.RESOURPOL.2018.08.010
关键词: Generalization 、 Root (linguistics) 、 Futures contract 、 Economics 、 Financialization 、 Open interest (futures) 、 Minor metals 、 Econometrics 、 Probabilistic logic 、 Order (exchange)
摘要: Abstract In this paper, we aim at identifying root causes linked to presence or absence of futures contracts for raw materials. Unlike previous analyses focused on the success via exchange volume and open interest, offer an alternative logit model applied 53 metal markets. We use different factors (price physical quantities produced, geographical concentration…) several combinations variables in order explore contracts. The shows both great explaining capability a good prediction power which are robust data resampling. According model, it is unlikely that minor metals successfully introduce coming years. also discuss interest by institutions financial authorities devoted development material
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