A structured elicitation method to identify key direct risk factors for the management of natural resources

摘要: Abstract The high level of uncertainty inherent in natural resource management requires planners to apply comprehensive risk analyses, often situations where there are few resources. In this paper, we demonstrate a broadly applicable, novel and structured elicitation approach identify important direct factors. This new combines expert calibration fuzzy based mathematics capture aggregate subjective estimates the likelihood that set factors will cause failure. A specific case study is used approach; however, described methods widely applicable analysis. For study, target was retain all species characterise biological elements. analysis bounded by spatial distribution elements under consideration 20-year time frame. Fourteen were expected be at risk. Eleven identified related surrounding land use practices, climate change, problem (e.g., feral predators), fire hydrological change. terms their overall influence, two most salinisation lack water which together pose considerable threat survival nine successfully overcame concerns arising from previous work: (1) an intuitive, yet scoring method enabling detection clarification agreement associated levels uncertainty; (2) ease with results can interpreted communicated while preserving rich detail essential for informed decision making.