Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects.

摘要: Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether invest in with high probability success and guaranteed benefits or choose projects a greater risk failure that might provide higher if they succeed. The answer this lies decision maker's aversion risk—their unwillingness accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using prioritization approach based cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: conservative threshold excludes management than fixed level, variance-discounting heuristic used economics explicitly accounts for tolerance probabilities failure. We applied both approaches prioritizing 700 New Zealand's threatened across 8303 actions. Both makers’ our choice dealing drove solution (i.e., selected management). Use minimized uncertainty, but more expensive were variance discounting, maximized expected by selecting extinction value. Explicitly incorporating within process reduced number be safe from because lower resulted being excluded management, allowed makers level acceptable fit their ability accommodate argue transparency recommend an adaptive framework maximize avoid potential extinctions due inefficient allocation limited resources.