A unified framework to model the potential and realized distributions of invasive species within the invaded range

摘要: Aim To propose a species distribution modelling framework and its companion “iSDM” R package for predicting the potential realized distributions of invasive within invaded range. Location Northern France. Methods The non-equilibrium with environment range affects environmental representativeness presence–absence data collected from field introduces uncertainty in observed absences as these may either reflect unsuitable sites or be incidental. To address issues, we here an systematic sampling design to collect probability index sort subsequently separate (EAs: reflecting environmentally sites) dispersal-limited (DLAs: out dispersal reach). We first conducted comprehensive test based on virtual evaluate performance our framework. Then, applied it different life stages non-native tree (Prunus serotina Ehrh.) Europe. Results Regarding distribution, found higher model performances both (true skill statistics (TSS) > 0.75) P. serotina (TSS ≥ 0.68) after carefully selecting low DLAs compared classical models that incorporate EAs (e.g. TSS = 0.11 80% DLAs). On contrary, well dispersal-related covariates were needed capture P. serotina. Main Conclusions Our helps overcoming conceptual methodological limitations disequilibrium species’ inherent enables managers robustly estimate species. Although more relevant species, this can also native