Environmental context and differences between native and invasive observed niches of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans affect invasion risk assessments in the Western Palaearctic

摘要: Aim: Identifying hosts and regions susceptible to invasion by an emerged pathogen is vital inform early risk assessments. We here show how differences between a pathogen's native invasive observed niche their underlying environments affect this process, using the recent emergence of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) as critical, empirical example. Location: Palaearctic. Methods: To quantify niches, we first gathered occurrences from Asian European distribution Bsal. Through ordination in PCA-bound environmental space, then applied overlap tests compare Bsal niches with those 56 putative Western Palaearctic host species. At last, ensembled bivariate models (ESMs) for each assess influenced suitability predictions. Results: The conservative, partially filled subset its wider niche. Pathogen-host measured narrow was nevertheless found be significantly higher than that niche, which partly situated subtropical conditions absent Palaearctic. ESMs created predict high throughout Europe. Conversely, more restricted range predicted coincides presence oceanic climates north-western Europe several Mediterranean mountain ranges. Main conclusions: Unequal relative availability ranges may lead underestimation populations range. existence add uncertainty measurements, predictions potential further spread. Results based on therefore provide conservative estimate; yet demonstrate, our case, already present shared numerous Further filling accordingly increase salamander diversity across