The importance of biological plausibility for data poor models in the face of an immediate threat by an emerging infectious disease: a reply to Katz and Zellmer (2018)

摘要: Species distribution models (SDM) are an important tool to predict the invasion risk of alien species and emerging infectious diseases. However, building reliable in early stages invasions is a challenging task. Katz Zellmer (Biol Invasions 20:2107–2119, 2018) addressed this problem presented framework for model selection data-poor newly invasive species. Based on data recently discovered amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), they built SDM gave concluding implications general Bsal its range particular. In our opinion authors’ their final processing show severe flaws lead biologically implausible (although statistically best) model, which used promote framework. We here intend remind readers importance biological relevance plausibility SDM, especially input data, by highlighting some deficiencies predictions. further emphasize considerations recommendations improve make evaluation more comprehensible. Though basic rationale, it particular when limited impede ‘proper’ evaluation. If prediction evaluated as good or best statistical measure, but obviously sense, we should not ignore biology Especially face imminent threat such spreading Bsal, immediate conservation management actions needed, wrong based may have counterproductive consequences.