Multiple-Stage Decision-Making: The Effect of Planning Horizon Length on Dynamic Consistency

摘要: Many decisions involve multiple stages of choices and events, these can be represented graphically as decision trees. Optimal strategies for trees are commonly determined by a backward induction analysis that demands adherence to three fundamental consistency principles: dynamic, consequential, strategic. Previous research (Busemeyer et al. 2000, J. Exp. Psychol. Gen. 129, 530) found decision-makers tend exhibit violations dynamic strategic at rates significantly higher than choice inconsistency across various levels potential reward. The current extends findings under new conditions; specifically, it explores the extent which principles violated function planning horizon length tree. Results from two experiments suggest increases tree increases; results explained within approach–avoidance framework.