iucn_sim - Improved predictions of future extinctions using IUCN status assessments

摘要: O_LIThe on-going environmental crisis poses an urgent need for predicting future extinction events, which can aid with targeting conservation efforts. Commonly, such predictions are made based on status assessments produced by the International Union Conservation of Nature (IUCN). However, when researchers apply these data extinctions, important information is often omitted, majorly impact accuracy predictions. C_LIO_LIHere we present iucn_sim, a command line program, implements improved approach simulating extinctions IUCN data. In contrast to previous approaches, iucn_sim explicitly models changes in each species, derived from assessment history last decades. Additionally program considers generation length translating into probabilities, as intended per definition. C_LIO_LIThe Markov-chain Monte Carlo estimation rates simulated extinctions. These estimates inherently contain chances and given species. C_LIO_LIBased empirical example including all birds (class Aves), find that our has strong effect estimated species-specific well overall number predicted Using show reliably high if run sufficient simulations. C_LI