Modeling the natural gas supply chain for sustainable growth policy

摘要: Abstract Natural gas has been used globally as a transitional fuel for supporting green-energy-supply strategy, which questioned the intermittence and lack of reliability renewables. This paper proposes System Dynamics model assessing alternative security supply policy along natural value chain. The incorporates demand, transport, production reserves variables according to systemic perspective. It also includes module evaluating effect price on demand levels, respectively. Alternative policies are evaluated under different scenarios. chosen case-study focuses Colombian industry with purpose how impact public affect demand. Particularly, consider allocation resources chain, seeking promote development infrastructure oriented mitigate risk provision shortages.