Modeling risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep

摘要: Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for management of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) affecting persistence herds, satisfaction stakeholders, and allocations resources by agencies. Risk factors associated with the disease poorly understood, making pneumonia hard to predict; such thus managed reactively rather than proactively. We developed model herds in Montana that identifies risk addresses biological questions about risk. Using Bayesian logistic regression repeated measures, we found private land, weed control using domestic or goats, history, herd density were positively 43 experienced 22 out 637 herd-years from 1979–2013. defined an area high pathogen exposure as each distribution plus 14.5-km buffer boundary. Within this area, odds epizootic increased >1.5 times per additional unit land (unit is standardized % where global x¯ = 25.58% SD = 14.53%). Odds >3.3 greater if goats used herd's If its neighbors within had history epizootic, subsequent >10 greater. greatly when at density, nearly 15 compared low density. also appeared decrease following spring precipitation (odds = 0.41 increase, x¯ = 100.18% SD = 26.97%). was not number federal goat allotments, proximity nearest sheep, ratio rams ewes, percentage average winter precipitation, whether native versus mixed reintroduced origin. conclude complex may always be most obvious sources. The ability identify high-risk will help biologists managers determine focus efforts affect herd, facilitating more effective, proactive management. © 2015 Wildlife Society.