Application of the complete‐data likelihood to estimate juvenile and adult survival for the endangered Hawaiian stilt

摘要: Applied ecologists routinely use demographic models to predict population trajectories. Survival rates throughout the life cycle, which are required for these models, often difficult obtain, especially long-lived or mobile species. Detailed information pre-adult age classes in particular is lacking. Using a 20-year dataset from several hundred individuals, we used Markov chain Monte Carlo methods fit hierarchical that describe survival both adult and sub-adult Hawaiian stilts Himantopus mexicanus knudseni, an endangered island endemic. We constructed complete-data likelihood data augmentation estimate missing values incorporate were not collected during formal sampling. estimates lower more uncertain first 2 months of compared with remainder year. The probability first-year averaged 0.55 (95% credibility interval: 0.07–0.90), but varied considerably among cohorts different years islands. Probability annual differed little between females (0.79; 0.71–0.86) males (0.80; 0.72–0.87), increased as birds aged 1 20 (0.77–0.85). Our analysis confirms earlier work, despite being based on few data, provided good point rates. new analysis, however, provides comprehensive assessment uncertainty detailed nature variation survival. This will help inform can be guide management actions.