Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World

摘要: Conservation decisions about how, when, and where to act are typically based on our expectations for the future. When world is highly unpredictable we working from a limited range of expecta- tions, however, will frequently be proved wrong. Scenario planning offers framework developing more resilient conservation policies when faced with uncontrollable, irreducible uncertainty. A scenario in this context an account plausible consists using few con- trasting scenarios explore uncertainty surrounding future consequences decision. Ideally, sce- narios should constructed by diverse group people single, stated purpose. can incorporate variety quantitative qualitative information decision-making process. Often, sideration systemic way leads better decisions. Furthermore, participa- tion process collecting, discussing, analyzing builds shared understanding. The robustness provided consideration multiple possible futures has served several groups well; present examples business, government, that illustrate value planning. For conservation, major benefits (1) increased understanding key uncertainties, (2) incorporation alternative perspectives into planning, (3) greater resilience surprise.