Modelling the distribution of Ilex aquifolium at the north-eastem edge of its geographical range

摘要: Plant distribution borders are key features to characterise the ecological niche of a species and monitor effects climate change. Here we focus on an evergreen small tree, Ilex aquifolium, which reaches its north-eastern range edge in Denmark. Our main objectives describe model current species, identify most important climatic land use factors shape this pattern, analyse species' habitat requirements. For purpose used data from national mapping project, complemented by information forest owners. The abundance I. aquifolium Denmark have markedly changed during past 40 years. It is now found almost all districts, although centres still coincide with historical records. shows lower suitability for northern eastern where winters more severe spring precipitation lower. To lesser extent, influences occurrence, but it common areas high proportion forests and/or urban sites. analysis requirements supports these results, since occurs mainly as deciduous stands, relatively nutrient-rich moist soils, under moderately light conditions. However, some records may be product seed dispersal planted individuals nearby. results suggest that has moved at least 100 km east within half century. Since I.aquifolium sensitive winter frost, change due increasingly mild temperatures.