Clustering based assessment of cost, security and environmental tradeoffs with possible future electricity generation portfolios

摘要: Abstract The electricity sector has a key role to play in the sustainable energy transition. falling costs of wind and solar PV have added both opportunities yet also challenges balancing sometimes competing industry objectives costs, security, environmental impacts. This paper presents novel techniques for assessing possible future generation portfolios three ways: (1) incorporating explicit metrics trilemma into modelling, (2) using optimization process evolutionary programming map solution space ‘high performing’, near least-cost, portfolio solutions, (3) applying boundary min–max cases clustering categorize these varied better facilitate planning policy making. We use an open-source tool, National Electricity Market Optimiser, assess Indonesia’s Java-Bali interconnected power system. Our findings highlight wide range that might potentially deliver similar total their different security implications. In particular, additional photovoltaic deployment appears low-risk opportunity reduce emissions compared more fossil-fuel oriented mixes. may be useful modelling community seeking understand communicate complex, uncertain, multi-dimensional choices planning.