A Geographic Mosaic of Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Vegetation: Which Areas Are Most at Risk?

摘要: Changes in climate projected for the 21st century are expected to trigger widespread and pervasive biotic impacts. Forecasting these changes their implications ecosystem services is a major research goal. Much of on responses change has focused either shifts individual species distributions or broad-scale biome distributions. Here, we introduce novel application multinomial logistic regression as powerful approach model vegetation potential change. We modeled distribution 22 types, most defined by single dominant woody species, across San Francisco Bay Area. Predictor variables included topographic variables. The aspect our output: vector relative probabilities each type location within study domain. was then 54 future scenarios, spanning representative range temperature precipitation projections from CMIP3 CMIP5 ensembles. found that sensitivity highly heterogeneous region. Surprisingly, higher closer coast, lower insolation, north-facing slopes areas precipitation. While such sites may provide refugia mesic cool-adapted face warming climate, suggests they will still be dynamic relatively sensitive climate-driven transitions. greater moist low insolation an unexpected outcome challenges views stability refugia. Projections foundation conservation planning land management, highlight need understanding mechanisms time scales