Who uses base rates andP(D/∼H)? An analysis of individual differences

摘要: In two experiments, involving over 900 subjects, we examined the cognitive correlates of tendency to viewP(D/∼H) and base rate information as relevant probability assessment. We found that individuals who viewedP(D/∼H) in a selection task used it make proper Bayesian adjustment assessment scored higher on tests ability were better deductive inductive reasoners. They less biased by prior beliefs more datadriven covariation task. contrast, thought rates did not display reasoning skill or ability. Our results parallel disputes about normative status various components formula interesting ways. It is argued patterns covariance among tasks may have implications for inferences what are trying optimize rational analysis (J. R. Anderson, 1990, 1991).