作者: Karen A. Garrett , Gregory A. Forbes , Marcel Gatto , Jorge L. Andrade-Piedra , Chris E. Buddenhagen
DOI: 10.1016/J.AGSY.2021.103144
关键词: Context (language use) 、 Livelihood 、 Agroforestry 、 Expert elicitation 、 Geography 、 Habitat 、 Crop 、 Risk assessment 、 Phytosanitary certification 、 Synchytrium endobioticum
摘要: Abstract CONTEXT Potato is an essential food staple and a critical crop for rural livelihoods in the Republic of Georgia, where many phytosanitary risks threaten production. OBJECTIVE The objectives this study were, first, to characterize current seed ware potato transaction network, value chain, varietal adoption, Georgia. Second, we modeled scenarios spread emerging pathogen, Synchytrium endobioticum, Georgia as part geographic risk assessment analysis. Third, coupled estimated our simulation experiments with reintroduction or invasion pathogens via international trade habitat connectivity. We found that majority obtained from local sources unknown quality. METHODS An expert elicitation workshop was held chain well production more generally To future pathogen through leveraged epidemic network analysis, analysis cropland connectivity, evaluation multi-step assessment. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Five varieties, including variety Jelly, made up 65% planted area throughout country. Several pests were listed contributing annual yield loss S. causing wart, identified greatest Through analyses potential within country, municipalities Adjara Samtskhe-Javakheti be at particularly high introduction wart recommend enhanced surveillance these regions. Our connectivity revealed region Azerbaijan, Armenia meet are seedborne such endobioticum. propose locations targets mitigation strategies. SIGNIFICANCE introduce methods general framework rapid regional systems, especially information available guide interventions scarce.