Sea level rise, coastal development and planned retreat: analytical framework, governance principles and an Australian case study

摘要: Coastal development is spreading along the World's coasts. Sea levels are rising, so major future asset losses expected. Planned retreat from sea behind natural ecological defences one adaptation option. To maintain it, land could be set aside for colonisation by coastal ecosystems, or buildings constructed on condition they removed when level reaches a specified distance building. Similarities among issues in high-income countries encouraged us to produce generalisable analytical framework exploring planned retreat. We applied it South East Queensland, Australia, where option of disappearing because (1) State Government promotes population increase; (2) need provide places naturally protective ecosystems occupy does not seem urgent, houses built there; (3) liability laws favour development; (4) planning ignores cumulative impacts, path dependent nature and irreversible social–ecological threshold changes; (5) political pressure build grows as value assets increases. To implement retreat, changes governance would needed, which we propose five guiding principles: (a) allocate authority resources between according their effectiveness at each level; (b) strengthen rules incentives relocate an unwanted approached; (c) allow uncertainties enabling changed circumstances change; (d) reassign public private benefits, costs, risks, responsibilities governments beneficiaries (e) institutionalise catastrophes opportunities change, signals rebuild. Following this research, our next priorities psychology social uncertainty, rights, obligations, trust. The other extend deepen understanding responses developers, bankers, insurers, house buyers, sellers owners incentives.