作者: Robert J. Wilson , Chris D. Thomas , Richard Fox , David B. Roy , William E. Kunin
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE03031
关键词: Biodiversity 、 Extinction 、 Ecology 、 Global biodiversity 、 Butterfly 、 Geography 、 Spatial ecology 、 Species richness 、 Species distribution 、 Occupancy
摘要: Interpretation of global biodiversity change is hampered by a lack information on the historical status most species in parts world1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Here we show that declines and increases can be deduced from current distributions alone, using spatial patterns occupancy combined with distribution size. Declining sparse, fragmented for their size, reflecting extinction process; expanding denser, more aggregated distributions, colonization. Past size changes British butterflies were successfully former had some power to predict future change. What more, relationship between pattern independently predicted butterfly Flanders, Belgium, rare plant similarly related pattern. This link processes could used assess relative levels threat facing different species, even regions taxa lacking detailed ecological information.