Deliberative disjunction: expert and public understanding of outcome uncertainty.

摘要: Many environmental and risk management decisions are made jointly by technical experts members of the public. Frequently, their task is to select from among alternatives whose outcomes subject varying degrees uncertainty. Although it recognized that how this uncertainty interpreted can significantly affect decision-making processes choices, little research has examined similarities differences between expert public understandings We present results a web-based survey directly compares lay interpretations different expressions in context evaluating consequences proposed actions. Participants responded two hypothetical but realistic scenarios involving trade-offs other objectives were asked series questions about comprehension information, preferred choice alternatives, associated difficulty amount effort. Results demonstrate laypersons tend use presentations numerical ranges evaluative labels differently; interestingly, observed groups not explained numeracy or concerns for predicted losses. These findings question many usual presumptions should be presented as part deliberative risk- environmental-management processes.