Integrated assessment models for ecologists: the present and the future

摘要: Aim Human impacts on the biosphere are a matter of urgent and growing concern, with ecologists increasingly being asked to project biodiversity futures. The Intergovernmental Platform Biodiversity Ecosystem Services (IPBES) is likely comprehensively assess such projections, yet despite widely used potentially critical tools for analysing socio-environmental futures, integrated assessment models (IAMs) have received little attention from ecological modellers. We aim raise awareness understanding IAMs among by describing structure composition IAMs, assessing their utility projections identifying limitations that hamper greater interaction between scientists using those models. also hope inspire more accessible applicable suggesting development needs IAMs. Methods We conduct systematic review four state-of-the-art which describes contrasts key model features analyses six aspects fundamental interest ecologists. Conclusions IAMs could be valuable modelling futures; however, current were not developed this application challenges remain looking use outputs. Separating differences resulting IAM formulation specific scenario assumptions currently problematic, may unable accurately represent environmental conditions both Earth-system building robust because processes absent. suggest intercomparisons would identify in dynamics, detailed studies how dynamical interactions components influence behaviour address why arise. Bio-economic fisheries agriculture pollination provide starting points integrating feedbacks within IAMs. Ultimately, making multidisciplinary study global change, drawing user-centred research, enable resolved, reliable accurate Earth's socio-ecological system approaching planetary boundaries.