Projections of daily mean temperature variability in the future: cross-validation tests with ENSEMBLES regional climate simulations
作者： Jouni Räisänen , Olle Räty
DOI: 10.1007/S00382-012-1515-9
关键词: Projection (set theory) 、 Climatology 、 Uncertainty analysis 、 Future climate 、 Mean radiant temperature 、 Quantile 、 Cross-validation 、 Environmental science 、 Climate change 、 Bias correction
摘要: Because of model biases, projections future climate need to combine simulations recent and with information on observed climate. Here, 10 methods for projecting the distribution daily mean temperatures are compared, using six regional change Europe. Cross validation between models is used assess potential performance in Delta bias correction type show similar cross-validation performance, based quantile mapping approach doing best both groups due their apparent ability reduce errors projected time temperature change. However, as no single method performs under all circumstances, optimal might be use several well-behaving parallel. When applying various real-world projection late 21st century, largest intermethod differences found tails distribution. Although variation generally smaller than intermodel variation, it not negligible. Therefore, should preferably included uncertainty analysis projections, particularly applications where extremes important.
springer.com
harvard.edu
sci-hub.se 参考文章(30)
D. Bromwich, L. Mearns, R. Benestad, R. Arritt, R. Laprise, J. Comiso, Annette Rinke, B. Hewitson, D. Caya, R. de Elia, A. Chen, V. Magana Rueda, X. Gao, R. Held, M. Beniston, A. Busuioc, W. K. Kwon, A. Sarr, J. Räisänen, Klaus Dethloff, R. Jones, C. G. Menendez, R. K. Kolli, P. Whetton, J. H. Christensen, Regional climate projections EPIC3Climate Change, 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, University Press, Cambridge, Chapter 11, pp. 847-940, ISBN: 978-0-521-88009-1. ,(2007)
Ben Kirtman, Wilco Hazeleger, Peter Stott, Detlef Stammer, Gabi Hegerl, David Lobell, Veronika Eyring, Marco Giorgetta, Mike MacCracken, Peter Cox, Karl E. Taylor, Jason Lowe, John Mitchell, Bjorn Stevens, Gerald A. Meehl, James Murphy, Ronald J. Stouffer, Tim Palmer, Nathan Gillett, Chris Jones, Tim Stockdale, Greg Flato, Gareth Jones, Ben Santer, Masihide Kimoto, Corinne LeQuéré, Bala Govindasamy, Cath Senior, Dáithí Stone, A Summary of the CMIP5 Experiment Design ,(2010)
A. Kitoh, P. Friedlingstein, S. C. B. Raper, J. M. Gregory, R. Knutti, J. M. Murphy, T. F. Stocker, A. J. Weaver, G.A. Meehl, Z. C. Zhao, W. D. Collins, A. Noda, I. G. Watterson, T. Gaye, Global climate projections Cambridge University Press. ,(2007)
Cui Chen, Jan O. Haerter, Stefan Hagemann, Claudio Piani, On the contribution of statistical bias correction to the uncertainty in the projected hydrological cycle Geophysical Research Letters. ,vol. 38, ,(2011) , 10.1029/2011GL049318
David A Randall, Richard A Wood, Sandrine Bony, Robert Colman, Thierry Fichefet, John Fyfe, Vladimir Kattsov, Andrew Pitman, Jagadish Shukla, Jayaraman Srinivasan, Ronald J Stouffer, Akimasa Sumi, Karl E Taylor, K AchutaRao, R Allan, A Berger, H Blatter, A Boone, C Bretherton, A Broccoli, Victor Brovkin, W Cai, Martin Claussen, P Dirmeyer, C Doutriaux, H Drange, J-L Dufresne, S Emori, P Forster, A Frei, A Ganopolski, P Gent, P Gleckler, H Goosse, R Graham, JM Gregory, R Gudgel, A Hall, S Hallegatte, H Hasumi, A Henderson-Sellers, H Hendon, K Hodges, M Holland, AAM Holtslag, E Hunke, P Huybrechts, W Ingram, F Joos, B Kirtman, S Klein, R Koster, P Kushner, J Lanzante, M Latif, N-C Lau, M Meinshausen, A Monahan, JM Murphy, T Osborn, T Pavlova, V Petoukhov, T Phillips, S Power, S Rahmstorf, SCB Raper, H Renssen, D Rind, M Roberts, A Rosati, C Schär, A Schmittner, J Scinocca, D Seidov, AG Slater, J Slingo, D Smith, B Soden, W Stern, DA Stone, K Sudo, T Takemura, G Tselioudis, M Webb, M Wild, Climate models and their evaluation Cambridge University Press. pp. 589- 662 ,(2007)
J. Räisänen, U. Hansson, A. Ullerstig, R. Döscher, L. P. Graham, C. Jones, H. E. M. Meier, P. Samuelsson, U. Willén, European climate in the late twenty-first century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios Climate Dynamics. ,vol. 22, pp. 13- 31 ,(2004) , 10.1007/S00382-003-0365-X
Erik Kjellström, Lars Bärring, Daniela Jacob, Richard Jones, Geert Lenderink, Christoph Schär, Modelling daily temperature extremes: recent climate and future changes over Europe Climatic Change. ,vol. 81, pp. 249- 265 ,(2007) , 10.1007/S10584-006-9220-5
Christoph M. Buser, H. R. Künsch, D. Lüthi, M. Wild, C. Schär, Bayesian multi-model projection of climate: bias assumptions and interannual variability Climate Dynamics. ,vol. 33, pp. 849- 868 ,(2009) , 10.1007/S00382-009-0588-6
A. Dosio, P. Paruolo, Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high‐resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate Journal of Geophysical Research. ,vol. 116, ,(2011) , 10.1029/2011JD015934
J. O. Haerter, S. Hagemann, C. Moseley, C. Piani, Climate model bias correction and the role of timescales Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. ,vol. 15, pp. 1065- 1079 ,(2011) , 10.5194/HESS-15-1065-2011