Short-term stream water temperature observations permit rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts

摘要: Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (Ts) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and environment are complex uncertain, few long-term datasets available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we demonstrate how simple monthly linear regression models based short-term historical Ts observations readily interpolated air (Ta) estimates can be used rapid assessment future in Ts. Models were developed 61 sites southeastern USA using ≥18 months validated at with longer periods record. The then estimate temporal each site both Ta projections. Results suggested that adequately explained variability sites, relationships remained consistent 37 years. We estimated most had increases annual mean 1961 2010 (mean +0.11 °C decade−1). All projected experience from 2011 2060 under three projections evaluated +0.41 °C Several largest located ecoregions home temperature-sensitive fish species. This methodology by temperature. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.