Risk Attitude in Gambles with Years of Life Empirical Support for Prospect Theory

作者: Lia C.G. Verhoef , Anton F.J. De Haan , Willem A.J. Van Daal

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X9401400213

关键词: Empirical researchExpected valueProspect theoryOutcome (game theory)Logistic functionPopulationEconometricsPsychologyAspiration levelCertainty

摘要: According to prospect theory, risk attitude changes depending on whether a is perceived as gain or loss relative reference aspiration level. To investigate with respect years of life, the authors elicited utilities at two occasions by certainty equivalent method from 30 women general population. The respondents gave equivalents gambles life. were two-outcome equal probabilities experience each outcome. A shift risk-seeking towards risk-averse was observed increasing expected value gambles. For individual, averaged responses over replications fitted an s- shaped logistic curve that showed excellent fit (r2 ≥ 0.97) for all respondents. level survival can be derived this function and negatively correlated age (r = -0.43, p < 0.025). data are consistent theory may explain why patients opt ...

参考文章(4)
John M. Miyamoto, Stephen A. Eraker, Parameter estimates for a QALY utility model. Medical Decision Making. ,vol. 5, pp. 191- 213 ,(1985) , 10.1177/0272989X8500500208
Barbara J. McNeil, Ralph Weichselbaum, Stephen G. Pauker, Fallacy of the Five-Year Survival in Lung Cancer New England Journal of Medicine. ,vol. 299, pp. 1397- 1401 ,(1978) , 10.1056/NEJM197812212992506
Nancy A. Kernan, Glenn Bartsch, Robert C. Ash, Patrick G. Beatty, Richard Champlin, Alexandra Filipovich, James Gajewski, John A. Hansen, Jean Henslee-Downey, Jeffrey McCullough, Philip McGlave, Herbert A. Perkins, Gordon L. Phillips, Jean Sanders, David Stroncek, E. Donnall Thomas, Karl G. Blume, Analysis of 462 transplantations from unrelated donors facilitated by the national marrow donor program The New England Journal of Medicine. ,vol. 328, pp. 593- 602 ,(1993) , 10.1056/NEJM199303043280901
Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky, Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk Econometrica. ,vol. 47, pp. 263- 291 ,(1979) , 10.2307/1914185